The public health impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 treatment in the United States (preprint)

The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re~1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases with Paxlovid would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI:0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% CrI:1.69, 71.15) thousand deaths averted, and US$52.16 (95% CrI:2.62, 122.63) billion reduction in the US. Rapid and broad use of the antiviral Paxlovid could substantially reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, while averting socioeconomic hardship.

Effects of Taiwan's COVID-19 alert levels on the physical activity behaviors and psychological distress of community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: The Taiwanese government implemented stringent preventative health measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures negatively affected the physical activity behaviors and psychological distress of individuals. In this study, we investigated the effects of Taiwan's COVID-19 alert-based restrictions on the physical activity behaviors and psychological distress of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, 500 community-dwelling older adults were randomly sampled from a health promotion center in Taiwan. Telephone interviews were conducted between May 11, 2021, and August 17, 2021, which coincided with the Level 3 alert period when group physical activities were prohibited. Telephone interviews were again conducted between June 20, 2022, and July 4, 2022, after the alert level was reduced to Level 2 but group physical activities were prohibited period. Through the telephone interviews, data regarding the participants' physical activity behaviors (type and amount) and 5-item Brief Symptom Rating Scale (BSRS-5) scores were collected. Moreover, data regarding physical activity behaviors were collected from the records of our previous health promotion programs, which were conducted before the national alert period. The obtained data were analyzed. RESULTS: The alert levels influenced physical activity behaviors. Because of strict regulations, physical activity amount decreased during the Level 3 alert period and did not recover rapidly during the Level 2 alert period. Instead of engaging in group exercises (e.g., calisthenics and qigong), the older adults chose to exercise alone (e.g., strolling, brisk walking, and biking). Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 alert level has a significant influence on the amount of physical activity for participants (p < 0.05, partial η2 = 0.256), with pairwise comparisons showing that the physical activity amount decreased significantly across the three time periods (p < 0.05). The psychological distress of the participants did not appear to change during the regulation period. Although the participants' overall BSRS-5 score was slightly lower during the Level 2 alert period compared to the Level 3 alert period, the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.264, Cohen's d = 0.08) based on a paired t-test. However, the levels of anxiety (p = 0.003, Cohen's d = 0.23) and inferiority (p = 0.034, Cohen's d = 0.159) were considerably higher during the Level 2 alert period than during the Level 3 alert period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that Taiwan's COVID-19 alert levels influenced the physical activity behaviors and psychological distress of community-dwelling older adults. Time is required for older adults to regain their prior status after their physical activity behaviors and psychological distress were affected by national regulations.

Longitudinal study comparing IgG antibodies induced by heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine.

Vaccines are critical cost-effective tools to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The heterologous prime-boost vaccination has been used by many countries to overcome supply issues, so the effectiveness and safety of this strategy need to be better clarified. This study aims to verify the effect of heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccination on healthcare professionals from Dante Pazzanese Hospital in Brazil. It was performed serological assays of vaccinated individuals after 2-dose of CoronaVac (Sinovac; n = 89) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca; n = 166) followed by a BNT162b2 booster (Pfizer-BioNTech; n = 255). The serum antibodies anti-S (spike), anti-N (nucleocapsid), and anti-RBD (receptor binding domain) were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The heterologous booster dose induced a 10-fold higher anti-Spike antibody regardless of the 2-dose of a prime vaccine. It was strikingly observed that BNT162b2 enhanced levels of anti-spike antibodies, even in those individuals who did not previously respond to the 2-dose of CoronaVac. In conclusion, the heterologous scheme of vaccination using mRNA as a booster vaccine efficiently enhanced the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2, especially benefiting those elderly who were seronegative with a virus-inactivated vaccine.

Network pharmacology analysis on mechanisms of xuanfei baidu prescription in treatment of SARS, MERS and COVID-19

Objective: To explore the effective components, target and signal pathway of Xuanfei Baidu Prescription in treatment of coronavirus infection, and to explain its mechanism of action. Methods A network of Character, taste, and meridian of Xuanfei Baidu Prescription was constructed using Cytoscape. Effective components and related targets of Xuanfei Baidu Prescription were selected by using TCMSP database, SwissADME database, and Swiss Target Prediction database. Disease targets of SARS, MERS and COVID-19 were collected using GeneCards database and CTD database. Drug targets and disease targets were intersected, and Cytoscape software was used to construct the network diagram. Using String database, the network model of protein-protein interaction (PPI) was constructed for potential targets. Metascape database was used for GO and KEGG enrichment analysis of potential targets, and Cytoscape was used to construct the network diagram. Results The results showed that 10 ingredients in Xuanfeibaidu Prescription are associated with the Lung meridian. 167 active components and 242 potential targets were screened out. The core drugs were Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch.,Ephedrae Herba, Artemisia annua L, Verbena officinalis L., Polygonum cuspidatum Sieb. et Zucc.. The core components were quercetin, stigmasterol, kaempferol, luteolin, isorhamnetin. The core targets were AKT1, IL-6, TP53, VEGFA, TNF. The possible mechanism of action is related to several signaling pathways such as PI3K-Akt signaling pathway, HIF-1 signaling pathway, TNF signaling pathway, and so on. Conclusion This study explored the potential common mechanism of Xuanfei Baidu Prescription on SARS, MERS and COVID-19, reflecting the multi-component, multi-target and multi-pathway characteristics of TCM.

Characterizing human collective behaviours of COVID-19 in Hong Kong (preprint)

People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb COVID-19 epidemic waves since the first COVID-19 case was confirmed on 22 January 2020. People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Here, we offer a framework to evaluate interactions among individuals emotions, perception, and online behaviours in Hong Kong during the first two waves (February to June 2020) and found a strong correlation between online behaviours of Google search and the real-time reproduction numbers. To validate the model output of risk perception, we conducted 10 rounds of cross-sectional telephone surveys from February 1 through June 20 in 2020 to quantify risk perception levels over time. Compared with the survey results, the estimates of the risk perception of individuals using our network-based mechanistic model capture 80% of the trend of people risk perception (individuals who worried about being infected) during the studied period. We may need to reinvigorate the public by engaging people as part of the solution to live their lives with reduced risk.

Predictive efficacies of vaccine dose fractionation using neutralizing antibody levels (preprint)

Background With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that eluded immunity from vaccines and prior infections, vaccine shortages and their effectiveness pose unprecedented challenges for governments to expand booster vaccination programs. Fractionation of vaccine doses might be an effective strategy to help society to face these challenges, which may have comparable efficacies in contrast with the standard doses. Methods In this study, we analyzed the relationship between in-vitro neutralization levels and the observed efficacies against asymptomatic and symptomatic infection of ten types of COVID-19 vaccines using data from 13 studies from vaccination and convalescent cohorts. We further projected efficacies for fractional doses based on 51 studies included in our systematic review. Results By comparing with the convalescent level, vaccine efficacy increases from 8.8% (95% CI: 1.4%, 16.1%) to 71.8% (95% CI: 63.0%, 80.7%) against asymptomatic infection, and from 33.6% (95% CI: 23.6%, 43.6%) to 98.6% (95% CI: 97.6%, 99.7%) against symptomatic infection, respectively, along with the mean neutralization level from 0.1 to 10 folds of convalescent level. And mRNA vaccines provide the strongest protection, and decrease slowly for fractional dosing between 50% and 100% dosage. Conclusions Our results are consistent with studies for immune protection from COVID-19 infection. Based on our study, we expect that fractional dose vaccination could provide a partial immunity for SARS-CoV-2 virus. Fractional doses of vaccines could be a viable vaccination strategy compared to full-dose vaccination and deserves further exploration. Key points We analyzed the relationship between neutralization levels and efficacies against asymptomatic and symptomatic infection of ten types of COVID-19 vaccines from convalescent cohorts. Fractional doses of vaccines could be a viable strategy compared to full-dose vaccination and deserves further exploration.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on maternal and neonatal outcomes of uninfected woman in late pregnancy: A multicenter study in China (preprint)

Background COVID-19 pandemic has had direct and indirect impacts on health-care system and maternal and neonatal health, but no multicenter evidence from China of this effects has been undertaken. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 lockdown on maternal and fetal outcomes in China.Methods This retrospective cohort study included 3540 women in their late pregnancy without COVID-19 who received perinatal healthcare in three hospitals in Wuhan, Shanghai and Haikou during COVID-19 lockdown period in 2020 or the non-lockdown period in 2019. Propensity-score matching was used to compare preterm birth (< 37 weeks) and its classification, very preterm birth (< 34 weeks), caesarean section and its indications, the length of hospital stay, birth weight and other pregnancy outcomes between two groups.Results Preterm births before 37 weeks’ gestation (5.4% vs. 5.3%, P = 0.83) and very preterm birth (0.7% vs. 0.8%, P = 0.58) were not significantly changed overall. But medical-induced preterm birth before 37 weeks’ gestation in Wuhan was decreased (0.8% vs. 1.7%, P = 0.04). The cesarean section for maternal factors was decreased (21.4% vs. 24.3%, P = 0.003). The length of maternal (4.2d vs 4.5d, P < 0.001) and neonatal (3.4d vs 3.7d, P < 0.001) hospital stay was shortened. No overall significant effects were identified for other outcomes included in the quantitative analysis: maternal gestational diabetes; pregnancy-induced hypertension; preterm birth with premature rupture of membranes; low birthweight (< 2500 g); neonatal intensive care unit admission; or abnormal Apgar score.Conclusions This study demonstrated that there was protective impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on maternal and neonatal outcomes among women in their late pregnancy in China.

Insights into COVID-19 epidemiology and control from temporal changes in serial interval distributions in Hong Kong (preprint)

The serial interval distribution is used to approximate the generation time distribution, an essential parameter to predict the effective reproductive number "Rt", a measure of transmissibility. However, serial interval distributions may change as an epidemic progresses rather than remaining constant. Here we show that serial intervals in Hong Kong varied over time, closely associated with the temporal variation in COVID-19 case profiles and public health and social measures that were implemented in response to surges in community transmission. Quantification of the variation over time in serial intervals led to improved estimation of Rt, and provided additional insights into the impact of public health measures on transmission of infections. One-Sentence SummaryReal-time estimates of serial interval distributions can improve assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and control.

Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval and incubation period distributions for COVID-19 (preprint)

The generation time distribution, reflecting the time between successive infections in transmission chains, is a key epidemiological parameter for describing COVID-19 transmission dynamics. However, because exact infection times are rarely known, it is often approximated by the serial interval distribution. This approximation holds under the assumption that infectors and infectees share the same incubation period distribution, which may not always be true. We investigated incubation period and serial interval distributions in data on 2989 confirmed cases in China in January-February 2020, and developed an inferential framework to estimate the generation time distribution that accounts for variation over time due to changes in epidemiology, sampling biases and public health and social measures. We identified substantial reductions over time in the serial interval and generation time distributions. Our proposed method provides more reliable estimation of the temporal variation in the generation time distribution, improving assessment of transmission dynamics.

Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval and incubation period distributions for COVID-19 (preprint)

Background The generation time distribution, reflecting the time between successive infections in transmission chains, is one of the fundamental epidemiological parameters for describing COVID-19 transmission dynamics. However, because exact infection times are rarely known, it is often approximated by the serial interval distribution, reflecting the time between illness onsets of infector and infectee. This approximation holds under the assumption that infectors and infectees share the same incubation period distribution, which may not always be true. Methods We analyzed data on observed incubation period and serial interval distributions in China, during January and February 2020, under different sampling approaches, and developed an inferential framework to estimate the generation time distribution that accounts for variation over time due to changes in epidemiology, sampling biases and public health and social measures. Results We analyzed data on a total of 2989 confirmed cases for COVID-19 during January 1 to February 29, 2020 in Mainland China. During the study period, the empirical forward serial interval decreased from a mean of 8.90 days to 2.68 days. The estimated mean backward incubation period of infectors increased from 3.77 days to 9.61 days, and the mean forward incubation period of infectees also increased from 5.39 days to 7.21 days. The estimated mean forward generation time decreased from 7.27 days (95% confidence interval: 6.42, 8.07) to 4.21 days (95% confidence interval: 3.70, 4.74) days by January 29. We used simulations to examine the sensitivity of our modelling approach to a number of assumptions and alternative dynamics. Conclusions The proposed method can provide more reliable estimation of the temporal variation in the generation time distribution, enabling proper assessment of transmission dynamics.

Assessing word-of-mouth reputation of influencers on B2C live streaming platforms: the role of the characteristics of information source

Purpose>The purpose of this paper is to assess the influence mechanism of the word-of-mouth reputation of influencers.Design/methodology/approach>This study explored word-of-mouth reputation from four characteristics of information source of influencers: credibility, professionalism, interactivity and attractiveness. The grounded theory was used to extract the characteristic indicators of influencers and used questionnaire surveys to obtain 218 valid samples. The fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used for the configuration analysis.Findings>The results revealed the following: (1) a causal asymmetric correlation exists between the driving mechanism of high word-of-mouth reputation and non-high word-of-mouth reputation;(2) influencers matching high word-of-mouth reputation comprises potential, developmental and almighty types, whereas live streaming influencer matching non-high word-of-mouth reputation comprises elementary and groping types;and (3) all factors must be combined to play a role, and neutral permutations of two solutions were found among the three overall solutions to attain high word-of-mouth reputation;(4) the combination of high user activity and high exposure is the core configuration that results in high word-of-mouth reputation.Practical implications>This study provides recommendation for consumers, live streamers, brand and e-commerce platform on how to promote the sustainable and healthy development of influencer marketing.Originality/value>This study focused on elucidating how the characteristics of information source affect the word-of-mouth reputation of influencers and have a reference value for the research on word-of-mouth reputation in the context of live commerce.

Clinical characteristics of pneumonia patients of long course of illness infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported in the last two years. A few studies reported clinical course of illness of median 22 days, including viral shedding of median 20 days, but there are several cases with a longer time of viral shedding. In this study, we included four cases with a longer illness course of more than 40 days who had been discharged or still in hospital by March 15, 2020. Demographic, clinical treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records. We described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics and the course of viral shedding. Two patients had comorbidity, one with hypertension and the other with diabetes. We found smoking was not an independent risk factor. D-dimer maybe related to the severity of illness but not to the course of the illness. Nucleic acid detection suggested that maybe more sampling sites represented more virus replication sites and longer course of illness. In this study we found some non-critical severe relatively young patients whose character was different from former studies described to provide a basis for reference to assess the risk of transmission and the isolation duration of patients.

Future Computer Systems and Networking Research in the Netherlands: A Manifesto (preprint)

Our modern society and competitive economy depend on a strong digital foundation and, in turn, on sustained research and innovation in computer systems and networks (CompSys). With this manifesto, we draw attention to CompSys as a vital part of ICT. Among ICT technologies, CompSys covers all the hardware and all the operational software layers that enable applications; only application-specific details, and often only application-specific algorithms, are not part of CompSys. Each of the Top Sectors of the Dutch Economy, each route in the National Research Agenda, and each of the UN Sustainable Development Goals pose challenges that cannot be addressed without groundbreaking CompSys advances. Looking at the 2030-2035 horizon, important new applications will emerge only when enabled by CompSys developments. Triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, millions moved abruptly online, raising infrastructure scalability and data sovereignty issues; but governments processing social data and responsible social networks still require a paradigm shift in data sovereignty and sharing. AI already requires massive computer systems which can cost millions per training task, but the current technology leaves an unsustainable energy footprint including large carbon emissions. Computational sciences such as bioinformatics, and "Humanities for all" and "citizen data science", cannot become affordable and efficient until computer systems take a generational leap. Similarly, the emerging quantum internet depends on (traditional) CompSys to bootstrap operation for the foreseeable future. Large commercial sectors, including finance and manufacturing, require specialized computing and networking or risk becoming uncompetitive. And, at the core of Dutch innovation, promising technology hubs, deltas, ports, and smart cities, could see their promise stagger due to critical dependency on non-European technology.

Parental marital conflict, negative emotions, phubbing, and academic burnout among college students in the postpandemic era: A multiple mediating models

Given the serious effects of coronavirus disease 2019 on academic burnout, this study aims to examine the multiple mediating roles of negative emotions and phubbing in the relationship between parental marital conflict and academic burnout. A total of 1353 college students participated in this study. The results showed that parental marital conflict not only had a direct effect on academic burnout but also affected academic burnout through three indirect paths: parental marital conflict‐negative emotions‐academic burnout, parental marital conflict‐phubbing‐academic burnout, and parental marital conflict‐negative emotions‐phubbing‐academic burnout. The parental marital conflict increased the risk of negative emotions and phubbing in college students and had a subsequent impact on academic burnout. Implications for prevention and intervention are discussed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Psychology in the Schools is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Sequential IgG antibody monitoring for virus-inactivated and adenovirus-vectored COVID-19 vaccine in Brazilian healthcare workers.

Vaccination certainly is the best way to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the seroconversion effectiveness of two vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was assessed in healthcare workers: virus-inactivated CoronaVac (CV, n = 303), and adenovirus-vectored Oxford-AstraZeneca (AZ, n = 447). The immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies anti-spike glycoprotein and anti-nucleocapsid protein were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at the time before vaccination (T1), before the second dose (T2), and 30 days after the second dose (T3). Of all individuals vaccinated with AZ, 100% (n = 447) exhibited seroconversion, compared to 91% (n = 276) that were given CV vaccine. Among individuals who did not respond to the CV, only three individuals showed a significant increase in the antibody level 4 months later the booster dose. A lower seroconversion rate was observed in elders immunized with the CV vaccine probably due to the natural immune senescence, or peculiarity of this vaccine. The AZ vaccine induced a higher humoral response; however, more common side effects were also observed. Nonvaccinated convalescent individuals revealed a similar rate of anti-spike IgG to individuals that were given two doses of CV vaccine, which suggests that only a one-shot COVID-19 vaccine could produce an effective immune response in convalescents.

Explore the attitudes of children and adolescent parents towards the vaccination of COVID-19 in China (preprint)

Background With the increasing incidence of asymptomatic carriers or milder symptoms, children and adolescents are likely to become a silent source of infection. In view of the efficacy and safety of vaccines in the treatment of novel Coronavirus pneumonia, population-wide vaccination will be an inevitable trend to control the spread of COVID-19. However, there is no survey on the attitudes of Chinese parents of children and adolescents towards their children's COVID-19 vaccination.Methods We used online questionnaires to find out the attitudes of Chinese parents toward their children's immunization against COVID-19. Logistic regression was used to explore the influencing factors.Results A total of 2019 parents participated in the survey. Overall, 74.38% parents said they would actively get vaccinated, 8.90% refused to get vaccinated, 4.60% said they would delay vaccination and 12.12% were still undecided.Conclusions In general, Chinese parents have a high desire to be vaccinated against COVID-19, and most parents have a positive attitude towards their children's vaccination. However, many people still hesitate or even refuse to be vaccinated. Education background, attitudes towards children's vaccination, children's age, recent illness and other factors have a certain impact on Chinese parents of children and adolescents towards their children's COVID-19 vaccination.